At the Forex currency market theNew Zealand rate weakens at the end of the week due to investors' riskaversion.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pairNZD/USD is going up in the negative area and is giving a buy signal; volumesare minimal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to maintain a sell signal, goingdown in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 0.7635, the pair will go to 0.7620 and 0.7600.
Statistics released in the morning showedthat consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand decreased to 108.4 points inDecember against 109.0 points previously. The NZD make use of the informationunder pressure of sellers.
This week's decision of theReserve Bank of New Zealand was of no surprise to anyone. Interest rate wasleft at the level of 2.5% per annum, since its level has already been revisedlast month. In addition, the data released on Thursday showed that activity inthe manufacturing industry fell by 1.4% q/q and remained unchanged on annualbasis in Q3, against the fall of 0.7% in Q2, which is the consequence ofslowdown in the world economy.
It became known earlier thattrade balance in New Zealand was at the level of -NZ$282 million inOctober against the level of NZ$784 million in September. The index remained indeficit last month although higher than the forecasts of economists. Volumes ofexport increased by 5.3% (NZ$3.9 billion on annual basis in October and importsrose by 8.9% y/y due to demand for industrial production.
GDP in New Zealand rose by 0.1%q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. ThusNew Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP almoststopped growing in the last quarter, which only proves that the decision of theRBNZ not to change the levels of the interest rate was logical. The reportdisappointed market and currently it is quite possible that regulator will keepinterest rates at this level for a long time, at least until the end of spring2012. Permits to construct in new Zealand increasedsharply by 10,0% in October against the fall of 1.3% y/y in September. The datais positive; however the NZD has ignored this information.
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