AUD: Australian Dollar is being activity sold out

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continuesto falldown on Friday, amid risk aversion.

Forexforecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the negative area and is going up shaping abuy signal, while volumes are low. Stochastic Oscillator is sharply going downin the neutral zone, approaching oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0060, the pair will go to 1.0050 and 1.0030. 

Investors'aversion to risk caused by European news and factors that occurred at the endof the week are not in favour of the AUD.

It became known on Thursday that unemploymentrate increased to 5.3% in November against the forecast of 5.2%. Employmentrate fell by 6 thousand against the growth of 16.8 thousand earlier. Economistshad expected increase in jobs by 10 thousand. The indicator reflects the impactof European debt problems on the Australian economy. And although the data on GDPsomehow reassured investors yesterday, traders started to worry again aboutpossible lowering of the interest rate.

GDP in Australia rose by 1.0% q/q (+2.5% y/y)in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.8% on quarterly basis. The data hassupported the AUD, which declined yesterday due to monetary decisions of theRBA. The data on economic growth in Australia was based on the rise in consumerexpenditures and investments in the mining industry. The results in GDPreassured investors and now a chance of another, the third in a row decrease inthe interest rate is receding. Note that earlier Australian authorities haverevised forecast of GDP growth downward, to 3.5% in 2012. Previously, forecasthad been at 3.75%

Retail sales in Australia increased to the minimumvalue of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October. In September the index rose by0.4%, and by 0.6% in August.

At the meeting yesterday, the Reserve Bankof Australia reported that interest rate was lowered by 25 basis points, to4.25% per annum. In the follow-up comments the RBA said that currently,inflationary forecast enables to decrease the rate gradually because in2012-2013 CPI will be probably in the range of 2-3%. The RBA also stressed thatcrisis in Eurozone and slow down in the Chinese economy adversely affectAustralia; in addition, probability of further slowdown in the world economyalso intensifies.

The next meeting of the Reserve Bank ofAustralia will be held only in February, so lowering of the rate can be partlyexplained by the fact that the regulator wanted to secure the situation beforesummer holidays (according to Australian seasons).

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